Friday, March 2, 2012

USD weakens over horizon

A not for profit research group American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) has determined that consumer prices have gone up this past year. This group claims that if you remove the big one time purchases made in this country such as houses, cars, furniture, etc. AIER states these big ticket items attenuates the results of inflation's "Sticker Shock" effect; in other words, the average items citizens buy to sustain their welfare. When this group removed these items from calculations, they found an increase  of 8% for the consumer price index. These kind of price increases on essential goods will place greater weight on families. More specific details from the AIER group:

"Motor fuel and transportation costs are up 21.06 percent from year-ago levels. The cost of food, prescription drugs, and tobacco also have increased faster than the government's inflation measure, rising 3.56 percent, 4.21 percent, and 3.4 percent, respectively."

These prices increases sound depressing for the consumer; unfortunately, it gets worse for the USD. An article from Xinhaunet from March of 2011:

"The amount of foreign exchange reserves should be restricted to between 800 billion to 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars, Tang told a forum in Beijing, saying that the current reserve amount is too high.
China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 197.4 billion U.S. dollars in the first three months of this year to 3.04 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of March."
 

 If the Chinese remove these funds, this money will return to the federal reserve in the U.S.  This decrease in USD reserve in the Chinese central banks will add to our inflation problems in the coming years. The problems continue for the USD with a statement from central bank governor Mahmoud Bahmani:

"In its trade transactions with other countries, Iran does not limit itself to the U.S. dollar, and the country can pay using its own currency." 

The U.S. and U.N. trade embargo have created new stresses for Iran's economy which has forced the country to trade oil for gold or other curencies. If the Iranians have the audacity to trade oil for gold, this action will spell big trouble for the USD. The reason the federal researve can freely print trillions of dollars without inflation problems comes from the petrodollar. The petrodollar is a word which refers to all oil traded is in USD. This makes the USD an essential currency in the central banks of foreign countries. This fact gives the U.S. a huge amount of credit, and it ensures American military and economic dominance.  The biggest oil trade partners with Iran are China and India which are also the most rapidly developing counties, so they are hungry for oil and USD; however, if Iran begins trading in gold for oil, the confidence of the USD will decrease, and we will be seeing more USD returning to the states adding to our inflation problems.

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